The federal election has brought me out of hibernation. Firstly I must state that at the moment I am an ALP member, and have been for about fifteen years now. Back in the mid 1980s I was in fact a Liberal party member, God knows what possesed me to do that. (Actually it was Mum & Dad, but let's not go into that now).
I need to make quite a few comments on the election. Firstly re the political process itself. I absolutely hate it when people say they can't be bothered with politics, you can't trust politicians and they couldn't care less who gets in. Probably the middle point is true, but we get the politicians we deserve. They come from us. They come from people who care enough to care. If no-one cares any more, then obviously the standard of political candidate decreases and any old so and so can get in. But whose fault is that, really? All politics is local, and if you care enough about it, then there IS something you can do (ask me how - I won't go on about it here).
Secondly, consider the electoral process of "compulsory" voting. As Mark Latham pointedly reminded us, we don't HAVE to make a mark on the ballot paper, we only have to turn up and get our names crossed off the roll. However I think if you've bothered to turn up, get a paper issued to you and are in a polling place anyway, it'd be crazy not to vote.
That's not the crazy point. The thing that drives me mad is that half the nation simply couldn't care less about politics. They don't understand the processes, they aren't interested in the game at all, and they regard voting as an inconvenience. In some countries, people have died (literally died) over the right to vote, yet half of us couldn't give a toss. Just do a quick street poll and see if you can find out what proportion of people can actually name their local member. I reckon you may be in for a big disappointment. When Kruddy was toppled that fateful day a couple of months ago and Gillard was made Prime Minister, I actually spoke to people who had never even heard of Julia Gillard. It says it all, really.
But in Australia we force them to vote and influence the outcome of the elections, yet their decisions as to who to vote for might be based solely on such factors as the colour of the candidate's hair, or the fact that their second cousin has the same surname as their local candidate. These criteria, for some people, are the main basis of their decision. More fool us for forcing them to vote.
Accordingly, the election campaign has to be pitched at a level that the dumbest Australian can understand. Don't worry about giving them facts about economics, don't worry about giving them aspirations, don't worry about giving them foreign affairs and defence policies, it's a waste of time. What you do instead is give them a sound bite with a juicy quote, or a picture, such as buying a pie from a shop, or chucking around a football. This is what Australian politics has been reduced to, and it's not something that gives us a good government. The sad thing is that instead of basing a political choice on the outcome of a debate, a lot of Australians might prefer to base their decision on the result of a bare-knuckle fight between a couple of political leaders.
So I say this: make it optional. If you don't care, don't vote. If you don't understand, don't vote. If you hate having to interrupt your Saturday footy or fishing trip, or visit to the pub, don't bother, we're all right without you. This way those who care enough to vote will be the ones making the decisions and the rest of the nation can just acept what those who did vote actually said. This is the way it works in most countries in the world. According to Wikiedia, only 32 countries have compulsory voting. Notably USA, UK, New Zealand, etc, etc do not, yet people do not tend to argue these nations are undemocratic.
Thirdly, and I need to probably end this post on a positive note, isn't the outcome of this election great on the same basis as the second point? To form a government, the independents and Green will need to be courted by someone aiming to form a government. On this basis they need to convince not a dumb electorate, but some of the most wily and canny political thinkers in Australa. I've been listening closely to what the non-aligned members have been saying (okay, ONE of them is a little disappointing with his parochialism - sorry Bob) and I am encouraged. They WILL be making a government based on policies, aspirations and abilities, and not the colour of the hair, or the relative's names. Won't this be a welcome breath of fresh air into the mix.
As a prediction, I cannot see either Tony Windsor or Rob Oakeshott coalescing with the Liberals. Adam Bandt has actually come out and stated that he wouldn't. I have no idea how Bob Katter will go (nor does anyone else, I'd say - even including Bob Katter, I'd reckon).
But the upshot of all this is I can't see Tony Abbott as Prime Minister this parliamentary term. The numbers are so close, however, that I also don't think the parliament is going to be workable. If a minister needs to go overseas, if an opposition member gets sick, if someone dies, or (more likely) someone has to resign due to either retirement or corruption, the parliamentary dynamic can change. The fact that the governing side would probably need to give up a speaker who doesn't have a normal vote also makes it difficult. So my prediction is a Labor/Green/Independent coalition for now, but it'll become unworkable due to an external factor and we'll be out at the polling booths again within a year.
